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Naji Nehme, CFA, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Petiole Asset Management AG, and Joe McConnell, Partner and Deputy Co-Chief Investment Officer at Castlelake, discuss the state of the aviation industry post COVID-19. Below are the highlights of the webinar:

The State of the Aviation Industry Post COVID-19

Naji Nehme, CFA, Chief Investment Officer at Petiole Asset Management, and Johannes Huth, Chairman of KKR Europe, Middle East and Africa, discuss the latest trends, strategies, and opportunities in the world of private equity. Below are the highlights of the webinar:

Outlook on Private Equity Amidst Rising Interest Rates

Outlook on Private Equity Amidst Rising Interest Rates | Johannes Huth

Jonathan Berger, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at AS Birch Grove, is hosted by Naji Nehme, Chief Investment Officer at Petiole Asset Management AG, to discuss the credit markets and the liquid equilibrium. Below are the highlights of the webinar.

Credit Market: The New Equilibrium

Credit Market, The New Equilibrium | Jonathan Berger

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.53871 dated 21/6/2004. Paid Up Capital: US$10,000,000. The Family Office only offers products and services to ‘accredited investors’ as defined by the Central Bank of Bahrain.

Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates LLC, was hosted by Naji Nehme, CFA, Chief Investment Officer at Petiole Asset Management AG, to discuss market uncertainty, rising inflation and the looming recession. Below are highlights of the discussion:

Economic Trends That Will Shape 2023 And Beyond

The Family Office is a Category 1 Investment Firm regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain C.R.No.53871 dated 21/6/2004. Paid Up Capital: US$10,000,000. The Family Office only offers products and services to ‘accredited investors’ as defined by the Central Bank of Bahrain.

Thomas Stolper, Chief Investment Officer at Embankment Currency Research, is hosted by Naji Nehme, Chief Investment Officer at Petiole Asset Management AG to discuss changes within central banks to fight inflation. Below are the highlights of the webinar.

Back To The 1980s – Re-Emerging Opportunities In Currency Markets

Abdulmohsin Al Omran, Founder and CEO of The Family Office, is hosted by Mazen Nahawi, President of News Group, to discuss the main success factors for investors in their investment and wealth management journey. Abdulmohsin shared The Family Office investment philosophy as well as advice to investors on preserving and growing their wealth. Below are the highlights of the discussion:

Success Factors In Private Market Investments

Jim O'Neill, former Commercial Secretary of the British Treasury, former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and senior advisor to Chatham House, was hosted by Naji Nehme to discuss the future of the European economy in light of the geopolitical change. Below are the main discussion points.

The Future Of The European Economy Amidst Geopolitical Change

During our February webinar, Senior Advisor and Chief Strategist to The Family Office David Darst discussed with Naji Nehme, Chief Investment Officer at Petiole Asset Management AG., how the endowment model applies to private wealth management. Major highlights included:

The Endowment Model: The Quest For Return Enhancement And Risk Management

2021 was “a year of recovery,” with very little downside in the stock markets. 2022 was “a year of reversals.”

The sharp recovery in the global manufacturing and services Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) in 2021 is reversing. Hayes does not expect a slowdown similar to that in 2020, but foresees moderating economic growth against inflationary pressures.

Another reversal is in central bank policies. The Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) is likely to raise rates starting March. With slower global growth, a reversal in corporate earnings growth is also expected. All these reversals indicate uncertainty and a sharp return of volatility.

Factors that contribute to this uncertainty include monetary policy, supply chain issues, and the Ukraine-Russia situation. Central banks in emerging and developed countries alike are moving into a tightening phase, as the Fed intends to reduce its balance and raise rates in 2022. But Hayes does not believe that this will change the longer term trend. That would require a significant deterioration in the macro-economic environment.

Hayes highlighted that markets usually withstand the early stages of a rate hike as markets recognize a favorable earnings environment. But after a series of rate hikes—historically, three rate hikes—yields start to flatten sharply, turning into a more negative situation.

Four rate hikes are expected this year, reflecting higher inflation and defensive market expectation. This could trigger another round of selling. But will the rise in interest rates replicate the events in the 1970s? Tim thinks that this requires a much higher inflationary environment than that experienced so far.

With the market rising 15% annually since 2009, NDR considers that a secular bull market has been in effect since 2009 and shall persist, consistent with past secular bull markets. While a cyclical bear market is inevitable, Tim was uncertain whether it will take place this year or next year.

Earnings yields and market valuations have improved, and stocks are not overvalued relative to bonds. The wide spread between earnings yields and wide bond yields have persisted for the past 20 years.

With real interest rates dropping below zero to nearly -6% and likely to remain negative, gold should benefit.

Amid such uncertainty and consequent volatility, markets undergo extreme rotations as money moves away from sectors such as technology towards sectors that benefit from high interest rates such as financials. Tech is overvalued in the US, weighing down the entire market. Energy and materials have held up and around 10 emerging markets have performed well.

The performance of cryptocurrency assets cannot be predicted or studied accurately. NDR models based on historical relationships between data series and markets do not apply to Bitcoin, given its lack of history and inconsistent correlation. It is hard to observe long-term secular or cyclical trends. The volatility of Bitcoin exceeds any other asset class and investors in cryptocurrency must be ready for such volatility. Bitcoin is not a viable option for a portfolio that aims to preserve capital given its volatility and increased regulations.

Naji concluded that amid the long-term secular bull market, our clients’ long-term investment strategy should be resilient to the cyclical bear sell-offs, allowing them to over-ride these downward trends and minimize volatility.

The Family Office has been preserving and growing the wealth of hundreds of GCC investors, individuals and families, by adopting a risk-adjusted approach to achieve optimal returns. Schedule a call with our financial advisors to start your wealth preservation journey.

Below are the major highlights of our first webinar of 2022, featuring Tim Hayes, Global Chief Investment Strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), as our guest speaker, hosted by Naji Nehme, Chief Investment Officer at Petiole Asset Management AG, discussing the global market outlook for 2022.

Webinar

Market InsightsPrivate Equity

The State of the Aviation Industry Post COVID-19

Market InsightsPrivate Equity

Outlook on Private Equity Amidst Rising Interest Rates

Market Insights

Credit Market: The New Equilibrium

General

Economic Trends That Will Shape 2023 And Beyond

General

Back To The 1980s – Re-Emerging Opportunities In Currency Markets

General

Success Factors In Private Market Investments

Market Insights

The Future Of The European Economy Amidst Geopolitical Change

Market Insights

The Endowment Model: The Quest For Return Enhancement And Risk Management

Market Insights

2022 Global Market Outlook: What Should Investors Look Out For In 2022?